Ontario Grain Farmer December 2021/January 2022

ONTARIO GRAIN FARMER 11 DECEMBER 2021/JANUARY 2022 and cash markets. This helps especially considering the unpredictable path of the value of the Canadian dollar. Daily market intelligence will remain key. The challenge for Ontario corn farmers is to balance these many concerns. Philip Shaw is a farmer near Dresden and the author of Grain Farmers of Ontario’s Market Trends Report published 14 times per year (available at www.gfo.ca/graintalk ). The opinions expressed in this commentary are his own. l How do we as farmers mitigate our risk for the old crop corn that might be left unpriced from 2021 and how do we hone that risk management in the months ahead? In Ontario, there is a big crop coming off the fields in 2021. Statistics Canada estimated 2.1 million acres of corn at an estimated yield of 169.4 bushels per acre. Private Ontario crop tours have projected even higher record yields. Quick math tells us (2.1 million acres x 175 bu/acre = 367.5 million bushels) 367 million plus corn bushels will be harvested in Ontario in 2021. About a third of this will go to ethanol, a larger portion goes to feed, food, and residual use, and the rest will be exported. This large supply will surely impact local basis especially at the time of harvest. U.S. replacement price will always loom and serve as a cap on Ontario prices if they go high enough to warrant U.S. corn imports. Much Ontario corn may have been priced in June 2021 when futures reached their high. However, that was then, and this is now. Key is risk management, knowing your way ahead. Standard pricing orders set to hit at specific cash levels can be helpful, especially with volatile futures Discover the benefits at myprograinbenefits.ca « The soybeans produced and exported by Prograin help feed 26 million people around the globe. » Prograin, the soy expert. Pub est 2022.indd 10 2021-08-20 13:51