23 ONTARIO GRAIN FARMER DECEMBER 2024/JANUARY 2025 “In roundtable discussions with the U.K. and Ireland, the talk was about Ontario and our supply,” recalls Devitt. “It instilled in me how important our crop is to them. Our logistics are good, going over there, getting corn into those markets; 10 per cent of our corn is going into the U.K. and the EU.” The attraction of Ontario was another point of discussion during the trade mission, with the war in Ukraine affecting its viability for moving commodities. In that respect, Ontario becomes a more enticing trade partner. GEOPOLITICALLY It’s enough that Doelman is a delegate with the Grain Farmers of Ontario, a Certified Crop Advisor, a local director with the Renfrew County Soil and Crop Improvement Association, and an instructor at Algonquin College’s Agri-Business program. But she’s also one of the Canadian canola farmers affected by China’s anti-dumping investigation into canola seed exports from Canada. While trying to juggle concerns about local trucking and getting her canola harvest delivered, she’s a board member of the Canadian Canola Growers Association and is one of a group of farmers across Canada who has been providing their own farm’s financial information to lawyers and accountants to provide concrete, farm-based information on Canadian canola’s cost of production as part of this defence. “All this has to be done with very tight timelines because the Chinese Ministry of Commerce only gives a short time for evidence to be submitted, and everything has to be translated,” says Doelman. She’s concerned Ontario - and Canada - will see more of this kind of weaponization of food despite claims of the need for global commerce. “Even with great trade relations, our customers depend on reliable delivery of quality product. If our supply chains are tied up in labour action and mismanagement, it doesn’t matter how good the product is, it’s not going to get to where our customers are.” Devitt echoes Doelman’s contention about the overall effect regardless of which countries are embroiled in trade disputes. Trade relations do have a direct impact on Ontario corn, wheat, or soybeans. “But it’s a risk factor in the market, and we can’t anticipate or mitigate what’s going to happen,” adds Devitt. “We’re part of the same big family in commodities. It’s about how farmers can be competitive.” 2025 OUTLOOK In the coming year, the focus is on staying the course in the face of lower commodity prices and doing the “little things” to be sustainable and profitable. On a North American scale, Devitt points to the U.S.-Canada relations in the wake of the presidential election on November 5, followed at some point by a federal election in Canada. That will have an impact on a new CanadaU.S.-Mexico trade agreement. Kabbes believes that as agri-businesses get larger, they can offer more technology services that individual businesses may not be able to provide, including smartphone apps, satellite imagery, record-keeping, and sustainability programs. From Hemingway’s vantage point, lower prices are here for the short-term unless something significant alters global production. “Global buyers will buy from North America, but the price needs to be competitive with other regions of the world,” he says. “In the past three or four years, marketing by procrastination has paid huge dividends to some growers.” Farmers should watch how non-agricultural investments react to commodity markets in the year ahead. Every time the managed money gets excited, reward the rally. • CROSBY DEVITT JENN DOELMAN DON KABBES NEIL HEMINGWAY
RkJQdWJsaXNoZXIy MTQzODE4