Published by www.OntarioGrainFarmer.ca DECEMBER 2024/JANUARY 2025 THE OUTLOOK ISSUE Risky business WHEN TO LOCK IN?
Topping off drinks makes it difficult for people to keep track. Always provide plenty of food for your guests Organize activities that don’t revolve around drinking Have plenty of water and non-alcoholic options It’s not what you drink, but how much you drink! Plan ahead to get home safely! The Good HostGuide presented by: scan to visit:
28Ontario Agricultural Conference 2024 Anèl Dannhauser 32Filling your wellness toolbox Helen Lammers-Helps 23Crop side Agronomic information from crop specialists 6 ON THE COVER Risky business Steve Kell WHEN TO LOCK IN? 4From the CEO’s desk Global insights 18GrainTALK newsletter An update on Grain Farmers of Ontario news and events 34Good in Every Grain Updates on our campaign 10Business risk management programs Sankalp Sharma 12The U.S. Farm Bill Owen Roberts 16Field observations year in review Laura Austin Ferrier 21 Eyes forward with a few glances back Ralph Pearce 24Weeds, pests, and disease Matt McIntosh 9Business side Conversations with business experts 15Crop side Agronomic information from crop specialists DECEMBER 2024/JANUARY 2025 volume 16, number 3 ONTARIO GRAIN FARMER is published 9 times a year (December/January, February, March, April/May, June/July, August, September, October, and November) through Grain Farmers of Ontario. Distribution is to all Ontario barley, corn, oat, soybean, and wheat farmer-members. Associate Membership Subscription available upon request. Views and opinions expressed in this magazine are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the policies of Grain Farmers of Ontario. Seek professional advice before undertaking any recommendations or suggestions presented in this magazine. PUBLICATIONS MAIL AGREEMENT NO. 40065283. Return undeliverable items to Grain Farmers of Ontario, 679 Southgate Drive, Guelph, ON N1G 4S2. © Grain Farmers of Ontario all rights reserved. Publisher: Grain Farmers of Ontario, Phone: 1-800-265-0550, Website: www.gfo.ca; Managing Editor: Mary Feldskov; Creative Specialist: Nicole Koopstra; Advertising Sales and Sponsorship Consultant: Joanne Tichborne 6 ON THE COVER Stormy skies ahead Treena Hein WHAT TO EXPECT IN 2024 From the CEO’s desk FEEDING THE WORLD 4 A year in review Laura Ferrier 10 Market review 2022 - 2023 Blair Andrews 12 Business side Conversations with business experts 9 GrainTALK newsletter An update on Grain Farmers of Ontario news and events 16 What do Canadians think about food? Mary Feldskov 14 Crop side Agronomic information from crop specialists European trade policies Ontario Grain Farmer 18 More winter barley acres Matt McIntosh 20 Grain contracts guide Mary Feldskov 22 Ontario Agricultural Conference 2024 Ontario Grain Farmer 24 Stronger leadership Rachel Telford 26 Good in Every Grain Updates on our campaign 30 Farming for world hunger Rebecca Hannam 28 172024 ANNUAL DISTRICT MEETINGS CHECK HERE FOR DATES AND TIMES DECEMBER 2023 / JANUARY 2024 volume 15, number 3 ONTARIO GRAIN FARMERis published 9 times a year (December/January, February, March, April/May, June/July, August, September, October, and November) through Grain Farmers of Ontario. Distribution is to all Ontario barley, corn, oat, soybean, and wheat farmer-members. Associate Membership Subscription available upon request. Views and opinions expressed in this magazine are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the policies of Grain Farmers of Ontario. Seek professional advice before undertaking any recommendations or suggestions presented in this magazine. PUBLICATIONS MAIL AGREEMENT NO. 40065283. Return undeliverable items to Grain Farmers of Ontario, 679 Southgate Drive, Guelph, ON N1G 4S2. © Grain Farmers of Ontario all rights reserved. Publisher: Grain Farmers of Ontario, Phone: 1-800-265-0550, Website: www.gfo.ca; Managing Editor: Mary Feldskov; Production Co-ordinator: Kim Ratz; Advertising Sales and Sponsorship Consultant: Joanne Tichborne BIODEGRADABLE POLY 15-03 OGF DecemberJanuary 2023-24_OnGrainFarmer 2023-11-09 11:04 AM Page 3 BUSINESS DIRECTORY 30
GRAIN FARMERS OF ONTARIO LAST UPDATED ITS STRATEGIC PLAN IN 2020. As I reflect on the past four years, it has been a period of tremendous change and upheaval but also a time of growth for the industry, with a number of tallies in the ‘wins’ column for Ontario’s grain farmers. The 2020 strategic plan was launched as the Covid-19 pandemic had a firm hold around the world, upending supply chains. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, fertilizer shortages, rail and shipping strikes, and unprecedented weather and climate-related disasters are among the global challenges that have impacted Canadian farmers, the agricultural markets, and the demand for Ontario barley, corn, soybeans, oats, and wheat. These challenges have all been met head-on by Grain Farmers of Ontario, with a dedicated team of directors and staff working tirelessly to address and mitigate the impact of events and circumstances beyond farmers’ control. Despite these challenges, the industry continues to grow: a 2023 report by MNP reports that Ontario’s grain industry represents $27 billion in economic output – a 60 per cent increase since 2010. That’s impressive! Over the past few months, the Grain Farmers of Ontario Board of Directors has been evaluating our progress and has taken what we’ve collectively learned over the past four years to complete a new strategic plan. This plan will be shared with delegates and farmer-members in the coming months at the upcoming January meetings. Be sure to plan to attend; the schedule is found on page 19. One of the big success stories of the past few years has been the continued advancement of trade relationships with global partners. Ontario’s grain and oilseeds are considered to be high-quality, safe, nutritious, and sustainably grown and continue to be in high demand globally. This was evident on a recent trade mission to the U.K. and Europe, where we met with industry leaders and government officials to learn more about how we can continue working together. While there are some challenges to overcome, like the impact of regulations including the EU Deforestation Regulations, for example, the implementation of which has been deferred to 2025 – our trade relationships remain strong, and the demand for Ontario grains and oilseeds continues to grow. While we work to maintain good relationships with trading partners, the domestic and international political environment continues to be a bit of a wild card. I am writing this just days after the November 5 U.S. election; the impact of a Trump presidency on the agriculture industry is yet to be seen. In Europe, a new EU government has recently formed, and there continues to be global unrest in many countries around the world, including Ukraine. Here at home, the federal Crosby Devitt, CEO, Grain Farmers of Ontario 4 From the CEO’s desk Charting the path forward election is scheduled for October 2025, with a provincial election to follow in 2026; however, we are preparing for a possible early election call in both cases. While I don’t have a crystal ball to predict the outcome of any of these issues, Grain Farmers of Ontario is working on your behalf to ensure the best outcome for whatever may come our way in 2025 and into the future. This edition of Ontario Grain Farmer marks the end of 2024; as we head into the holiday season and the new year, I want to wish you and your family health, happiness, and good fortune. • GRAIN FARMERS OF ONTARIO MET WITH EUROPEAN AND UNITED KINGDOM TRADE PARTNERS IN OCTOBER.
Women’s Grain Symposium BANQUET/SPEAKER PANEL DISCUSSION, TUESDAY LUNCH SPEAKER SPONSORS NUTRITION BREAK SPONSORS SUPPORTER SWAG BAG TUESDAY BREAKFAST MONDAY LUNCH Thank you to the 2024 Women’s Grain Symposium sponsors! The support of our sponsors helped make our event a tremendous success and fulfilled our goal of making connections. Grain Farmers of Ontario’s Women’s Grain Symposium is an opportunity for networking, professional development, and leadership development. It is open to women who are grain farmers, active members of their family grain operation, or working within the grain sector of agriculture business with a direct connection to farmers. We look forward to hosting the Symposium again in 2025.
6 Cover story Risky business WHEN TO LOCK IN? Steve Kell THE PERIOD BETWEEN 2021 AND 2023 MIGHT GO DOWN IN HISTORY AS SOMETHING OF A DARK PERIOD in the business of grain farming. But not because of the prices. Cash grain prices enjoyed record highs between a drought in North America, two consecutive droughts in South America, and a war breaking out when Russia invaded Ukraine. The dark spot is that those really hot markets taught us some bad habits about marketing and allowed us to slide away from the tools and discipline which had made us successful in the years before. When the world market believes it is short of grain, it behaves a lot like a motorist who believes that they are about to run out of gas. They find the nearest place to get some and pay whatever the price is because the fear of running out is overwhelming. That’s essentially where the world grain markets were between 2021 and 2023 when there were legitimate concerns about grain supply and potential interruptions to the market. End users around the world wanted to own their supply needs, and commercial grain companies wanted to own inventory because it was a good investment. Like the motorist running out of fuel, we had a very motivated market with enthusiastic buyers whose principal motivation was simply not to run out. The grain business has changed a lot since then. We have enjoyed two near-record North American harvests, and South America has had one massive crop and may be on its way to a second. The net result of these great production numbers is that ending stocks have become burdensomely large. Going back to our motorist analogy, if you’re going to be able to do all of the running around that you need to do and still get home with a quarter tank of gas, how cheap would it need to be before you chose to pull up to the pumps and fill up? A ’CARRY’ MARKET In these times when commodities are well supplied relative to demand, the futures markets shift into what is known as a “carry,” meaning that supplies are large enough that the market will pay holders to carry the inventory forward. It is the historically normal situation for the grain markets. Statistically, five of every six years is a carry market in the corn futures, so we’ve all had plenty of practice operating in this scenario. In a futures “carry,” the nearby contract is the lowest price, and the values rise as the market moves out into the forward months. In the corn futures, we might see the carry present itself like this: December $4.00. March $4.15. May $4.25. July $4.37. There’s a tendency to think that this shows strength in the markets because the crop is worth more later, but the truth is actually the opposite. In a carry market, the nearby prices are always the lowest because there is a discount if you need the money or the movement now. The big strategic shift that farmers need to make when we find ourselves in a period of surplus grain supplies is to plan out our marketing in such a way that we don’t get trapped into ever having to accept the spot cash prices. WHEN TO FORWARD CONTRACT? The optimal time window for forward contracting grain is six to 12 months before the actual delivery window when the crop is going to move to market. Working inside of that particular time period creates an opportunity to lock in the higher futures prices in the deferred futures, but also is STEVE KELL AT HIS FARM IN SIMCOE COUNTY.
7 ONTARIO GRAIN FARMER DECEMBER 2024/JANUARY 2025 continued on page 8 close enough to the actual delivery period that there’s greater accuracy in the basis bids because the crop supply and grain demand modelling is becoming fairly well developed six to 12 months out. It’s certainly possible to sell futures for a grain delivery in 2027, but since so little is known about what the crop supplies or world markets might look like three years from now, there would be a lot of protection taken in the basis portion of the bid. However, if you contract corn in December of 2024 for delivery in June of 2025 (six months out), the basis portion of the price is pretty accurate because the supply and demand picture for next summer is already pretty well understood at this point in time. Picking the right day to make forward sales is not without a certain amount of risk, but there are fairly reliable seasonal patterns which can at least get us to focus on locking in prices at the right time of year. During spring seeding and the emergence of the newly seeded crop (April, May, and June), it seems that futures markets experience a great deal of anxiety over new crop supply, and prices are both high and volatile. In eight out of every 10 years, if a producer forward contracted new crop corn or soybeans during May or June, they would lock in a higher price than the spot bid at harvest. Even this past spring we saw new crop soybeans as high as $15.35/bushel in May, and new crop corn reached $5.85/bushel before the first of June. There are two reliable seasonal cycles in the wheat market, too. One in the fall when the market is trying to buy acres and one in the spring when the crop is breaking dormancy and frost, floods, and snow are worrisome to the crop.
CropBooster® Oligo Prime® and RR SoyBooster® Oligo Prime® in corn, soybean and wheat crops Agro-100 has conducted over 100 trials to confirm the value of its new Oligo Prime® technology. In corn, average yield increases were greater than 6 bu/acre. Talk to your Agro-100 representative or Ag retailer. 1 866 770.8887 • www.agro-100.com download the Agro100 application for free today! Proven Biostimulant Tank Mix Program activated by OligoPrime® 7.indd 1 2024-10-25 5:05 PM 8 This is where discipline is critical to a successful marketing plan. Sellers of crop need to have realistic expectations for their pricing targets and be decisive enough to book before the opportunity gets away. Some combination of target pricing orders and calendar deadlines (such as booking 10 per cent of the crop each week for the six-week spring season) are good tools to help keep the marketing plan on track. RISK JUNKIES I chuckle a little bit at grain producers who aren’t comfortable forward contracting because they “don’t want to take on the risk.” When you look at the business dynamics of grain farming, it’s pretty clear that anyone who makes their living in this line of work is an absolute risk junkie. Who else would invest millions of dollars in land, equipment, and crop inputs and then use it in a way that is vulnerable to local weather, weather in other parts of the world, and a whole host of geopolitical issues, including wars and embargos and then say that they are uncomfortable with risk? Commodity markets are certainly volatile by nature, but constructing a marketing plan that lets us lock in prices at appropriate times is one of the few tools we have to mitigate risk. A farm business has something of a risk balance sheet. On the one side are all of the areas where our grain farming operations take on risk. We are committed to expenses on items like land, equipment, crop inputs, and labour, and on the other side, we need to off-set the risk by locking in certainty on the revenue side using tools like crop insurance to create certainty about yield, and forward contracted sales to create certainty about price and cash flow. Steve Kell is a delegate in District 11 (Dufferin, Simcoe, Halton, Peel, York). He farms in Simcoe County and is the grain merchandiser for Kell Grain Elevators.• continued from page 7 Cover story
9 ONTARIO GRAIN FARMER DECEMBER 2024/JANUARY 2025 Healthy conflict management on the farm BUSINESS SIDE WITH... (J.M.) WHAT IS A HEALTHY, PRODUCTIVE WAY TO APPROACH CONFLICT? (J.M.) Conflict is quite common on farms but not something most farmers (of any age) are skilled at navigating, so it often has a negative association or reaction. Unfortunately, the minute we say conflict, we immediately feel uncomfortable. We tend to see conflict as something negative or a source of stress and discomfort. But, when approached constructively, conflict can be easily navigated. As a conflict management coach, I like to approach healthy conflict as a brainstorming session, where people learn to respectfully disagree, actively listen to each other’s ideas and feelings, and collaborate to find the best outcome for both parties involved. It’s not about winning or losing an argument but about understanding different perspectives and reaching a consensus on the way forward that allows both parties, or the people involved, to feel like they’ve had their feelings validated and learned something in the process. WHAT ARE SOME COMMON CONFLICTS THAT OCCUR? Conflict tends to arise because we are inclined to judge others on their behaviour while we judge ourselves on our intentions. So, while there’s no list of ‘top causes of conflict’ on a farm, farm businesses, in general, face plenty of challenges where conflicts may occur. One of the most unique challenges for farmers is that many are family businesses. The close relationship between family and business can easily blur boundaries and intensify disagreements. Years of shared history, intertwined finances, and differing visions for the future can all contribute to complex conflicts for farmers. Effective communication is crucial, and the demanding nature of farm work often hinders open dialogue. Misunderstandings arise, and the focus on “getting the job done” can overshadow the importance of addressing interpersonal issues in the process. HOW CAN FARMERS FOSTER A HEALTHY WORK ENVIRONMENT? A healthy work environment is essential for a productive and thriving farm. It fosters open communication, boosts morale, and reduces stress, leading to greater efficiency and job satisfaction. Farm managers and employees should prioritize open communication, encourage collaborative problem-solving, and foster teamwork to achieve this. These will set the tone for a thriving workplace. Recognizing individual strengths and celebrating achievements is also important to create a culture of appreciation and motivate employees to excel. Employees (and family members) should feel comfortable expressing their ideas and concerns, knowing their voices are valued. Promoting collaboration by sharing goals and teamwork while acknowledging individual contributions can strengthen a sense of community and shared purpose on the farm. A good leader will offer support during challenges and celebrate successes, fostering a sense of belonging and appreciation. By leading with empathy and approachability, they can create a space where everyone feels Jennifer MacTavish, MacTavish Consulting mactavishconsulting.ca Business side Jeanine Moyer safe, valued, and motivated to contribute their best. Finding the best approach that works for your farm is important. This could include scheduling weekly team meetings (including family) to openly discuss goals and objectives, address concerns, and celebrate wins. Creating a space for safe, open dialogue and prioritizing communication at every level of a farm’s management structure will support healthy conflict resolution and may even help mitigate situations before they escalate. CAN YOU OFFER TIPS FOR CONFLICT MANAGEMENT? Communication is my top tip and is essential in any line of work. One of the best lessons I’ve learned is the importance of developing relationships with the people you work with. The ability to create a healthy working environment comes down to fostering good relationships and caring about the people you work with. As an employer or farm leader, your role isn’t limited to giving feedback. It’s just as important to be able to receive feedback. That’s where true leadership lies. Encourage your employees to provide honest feedback on your leadership style and performance. If you find yourself reacting defensively, it might signal an area for personal improvement. Demonstrating openness to feedback also creates a culture of trust. Don’t forget to have fun too! Work can be demanding, and conflicts are inevitable. Even when challenges arise, it’s important to remember to find moments of joy and connection with your colleagues. •
10 Government relations Business risk managements programs A CANADA-U.S. COMPARISON Sankalp Sharma CHALLENGING ECONOMIC TIMES OFTEN RAISE THE QUESTION OF RISK MITIGATION. Nowhere is this truer than grain farming in Ontario. Despite being one of North America’s most productive group of growers, Ontario’s grain farmers remain exposed to declining commodity prices and input prices that remain stubbornly high relative to the selling price. In fact, economists predict that 2024 is shaping up to be the worst financial year in farming since 2007. In such times, farmers often turn to government-supported business risk management (BRM) programming for relief and questions turn to their effectiveness, especially relative to neighbouring regions. In Canada’s case, this region is, of course, the United States. Grain farmers south of the border enjoy the luxury of choosing from a wide variety of federal crop insurance products and can rely on funding available through the Farm Bill’s Title I programming, specifically the Area Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) programs. Both programs are set to pay out over the next two years, given the low commodity price environment farmers currently find themselves in. COMPARING PROGRAMS Recent work by Grain Farmers of Ontario compared programming available to Ontario’s grain farmers with those in the U.S. The analysis revealed that U.S. farmers have more comprehensive risk coverage available, and the payments from these programs are also higher on a per-acre basis. In a simulated scenario, it was discovered that in 2024, if BRM programming is called upon due to a bad production event for a representative farmer (1,000 acres) in both Ontario and the U.S. (specifically a farmer in Nebraska), a U.S. farmer’s payment would be nearly C$91/acre higher. However, it must be noted that the U.S. farmer does have a combined per-farmer payment limit for the PLC/ARC programs of US$125,000. This may be extended to US$250,000 if the farmer and their spouse jointly operate the farm. The difference in payments is primarily why the U.S. number is higher, which can be explained by the fact that U.S. farmers can cover their acres using the Revenue Protection program, which is by far the most utilized crop insurance product in the U.S., and the PLC/ARC payments, which are set to pay out this year and the next at least. In comparison, Ontario’s grain farmers use the Production Insurance program, which only offers coverage for a decline in yield. In addition, Ontario’s farmers also have the Risk Management Program (RMP) payments, which provide coverage for price loss or high input prices but have historically experienced high proration. Even this year, the RMP payments will be heavily prorated, paying only 35 cents on the dollar. Federal programs such as AgriStability rarely trigger even in times of need since they only cover catastrophic income loss. AD HOC PROGRAMS U.S. farmers have also benefitted from ad hoc direct payments in the recent past, which were not budgeted for in the Farm Bill. These were driven by U.S.-China tariff wars in 2018/19 and the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020. In fact, more ad hoc payments might be on the way with the recent introduction of a bill titled the FARM (Farm Revenue Mitigation) Act, which, if passed, will provide another $20 billion in funding to U.S. farmers. These latest ad hoc payments
11 ONTARIO GRAIN FARMER DECEMBER 2024/JANUARY 2025 De Dell Seeds The Leaders in Non-GMO Corn De Dell Seeds • 7095 Century Drive • Melbourne, ON • N0L 1T0 P: 519-264-CORN (2676) • F: 519-264-2672 info@dedellseeds.com • www.dedellseeds.com We are confident you will make MORE PROFIT growing De Dell seed corn. Vince Trudell, President are to support farmers who face declining margins driven by lower commodity prices of primary crops. Furthermore, the new U.S. Farm Bill, pending passage, is aiming to considerably increase funding for Title I commodity and crop insurance programs. The Congressional Budget Office estimates an additional US$47 billion more will be spent on the two programs over the next 10 years (until 2033), which will be a 77 per cent increase over the current funding level for those programs. The funding increase will support an increase in crop insurance premium subsidies and an increase in the reference prices of the PLC/ARC programs, which are set to increase between 11-15 per cent. The higher reference prices will enable the programs to trigger more often. It is important to highlight the differences in risk coverage between the U.S. and Canada as they affect the respective global competitiveness of the two groups of farmers. Whenever U.S. farmers have suffered, the American government has acted quickly to compensate them. In fact, research suggests that payments from the Market Facilitation Program—an ad hoc payment initiative created by the U.S. government to compensate corn and soybean farmers during the U.S.-China trade wars—may have exceeded the losses those farmers incurred. Improving business risk management programming is the number one priority for Grain Farmers of Ontario. This includes increasing the funds available to pay out claims for Ontario’s Risk Management program and improving the AgriStability program so that it is more responsive to grain farmers in Ontario. Sankalp Sharma, PhD, is Grain Farmers of Ontario’s senior economist. It is important to highlight the differences in risk coverage between the U.S. and Canada as they affect the respective global competitiveness of the two groups of farmers.
12 Industry news The U.S. Farm Bill AMERICAN PRODUCERS PUSH FOR MODERNIZATION Owen Roberts NOW THAT THE AMERICAN ELECTION HAS CONCLUDED, IT’S TIME TO FINALLY GET ON WITH THE WORLD’S MOST ALLENCOMPASSING, IMPORTANT PIECE OF FARM LEGISLATION, THE U.S. FARM BILL. The 1,000-page bill, which has been in place since 1933, put US$428 billion into farming, nutrition programs, and food aid there from 2017-2022. Given the Americans’ emphasis on agricultural exports, as well as their presence on the world stage, no food and farm initiative anywhere comes close to matching its influence. The Farm Bill covers the gambit, as underlined by the U.S. Council of State Governments. “Various stakeholders have emphasized why everyone should care about the Farm Bill,” says the council. “This legislation provides universities with funding for research on important topics, assists those impacted by natural disasters, and bolsters the ability of local communities to expand recreational and outdoor activities.” Safety nets, risk management programs, loans, disaster assistance, and conservation programs are central to the Farm Bill, which is renewed every five years to ensure that it is current. Speculation runs high over what each new iteration of the bill will emphasize. Farmers at home and abroad closely watch its progress because of their significant implications for their own farm management. Whatever the Americans emphasize over that five-year stretch is likely trend setting and worth understanding. But in 2023, the tragically stalled and divided U.S. federal government, entrenched in political dogma, couldn’t agree on a new bill. This was not an unprecedented turn of events; through the years, similar delays were caused by bogged-down governments. But it was particularly worrisome and dramatic this year, given how U.S. politics had become so polarized. Even with an extension, could a new bill be written by September 30, 2024, when programs supported by the Agriculture Improvement Act of 2018, the official name of the Farm Bill, were set to expire? Things looked up for a while. House Agriculture Committee Chairman GT Thompson managed to craft and move a bill through the bipartisan committee, a near Herculean task. He had support from the sector – 535 farm organizations, including the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFB), sent a joint letter to Congress urging lawmakers to come together and pass the bill. Farm Bureau chief economist Roger Cryan held out hope that success was possible. “It’s not too late to imagine a new five-year farm bill coming out of this Congress,” he said, but added a warning: “It is not that hard, unfortunately, to imagine the price of inaction.” RHETORIC WORSENS AS ELECTION NEARS Cryan’s optimism, however, would not pan out. As the November election approached, the Senate agriculture committee dug in its heels. Rhetoric worsened and political parties became even further ensconced in their camps. The White House’s focus shifted more intently to volatile Middle East politics and the ongoing Russia invasion of Ukraine. Consumers were focused on the price for food rather than the farmers who produce it. On the campaign trail, immigration and the economy, which are heavily influenced by agriculture, were discussed repeatedly. Yet agriculture was rarely mentioned and ultimately fell by the wayside, along with the prospect of a timely new Farm Bill, which some predicted could require as much as $1 trillion to meet the sector’s needs. The ripple effect of failing to meet the September 30 deadline spread widely, fueled
13 ONTARIO GRAIN FARMER DECEMBER 2024/JANUARY 2025 “Policy that pre-dates a global pandemic, historic inflation, skyrocketing supply costs, and geopolitical uncertainty just won’t cut it today or next year.” by terrible timing. The AFB gravely predicted that U.S. farm income will be nearly $40 billion lower in 2024 compared to 2023. Emerging markets and new strategic trade alliances that don’t include the U.S. have made trade prospects worse. America was losing farms at a breakneck pace, 141,000 farms in five years. It’s no wonder that Purdue University’s Ag Economy Barometer for September showed that U.S. farmer optimism hasn’t been so low since the dark days of 2016. Administratively, numerous international programs, including the Market Access and Foreign Market Development Cooperator trade promotion programs and Food for Progress, stopped immediately. Others that ground to a halt included the Biobased Markets Program, the Bioenergy Program for Advanced Biofuels, the Specialty Crops Block Grants program, the National Organic Certification Cost-Share program, several important animal health programs, and programs for socially disadvantaged, veteran, young, and beginning farmers. There was still more. New enrollment stopped for some critical conservation programs, including the Conservation Reserve Program, affecting agriculture’s work to meet sustainability goals. And if there is still no resolution by the New Year, Dairy Margin Coverage payments will cease. It wasn’t a total disaster, however. Several current Farm Bill programs are not subject to renewal – they operate under permanent law without a five-year sunset date. The AFB says the most important of these programs are crop insurance programs and the primary All are welcome to attend the Nuffield Canada Scholar Presentations. Be the first to hear it! Andrew Rosychuk Edmonton, AB | 2020 Scholar Sponsored by: Nuffield Canada Andrew Rosychuk Edmonton, AB | 2020 Scholar Sponsored by: Nuffield Canada Topic: On-Farm Medium Scale Processing Craig Lester Calgary, AB | 2023 Scholar Sponsored by: Alberta Grains (formerly AB Wheat Commission) Topic: Media’s Role In Agriculture And The Influence It Has On Consumers’ Perspective Of The Industry Emily Ford Medicine Hat, AB | 2023 Scholar Sponsored by: McCain Foods Topic: Regenerative Agriculture in Potato Production Systems Justin Cantafio Dartmouth, NS | 2023 Scholar Sponsored by: NS Gov., Dept. of Agriculture Topic: Taking A Global Lens In Exploring The Power Of The World’s Public Markets To Build Sustainable, Resilient, And Adaptable Local Food Systems In Canada Kirk Zembal Edmonton, AB | 2023 Scholar Sponsored by: Canadian Canola Growers Association Topic: Creating Value For Grain Growers In The Rapidly Changing Sustainability And Carbon Pricing Landscape Stephanie Lam Guelph, ON | 2023 Scholar Sponsored by: Semex Topic: Genetic And Genomic Approaches 1:00-4:30 PM Scholar Presentations 5:30 PM Reception 6:30 PM Banquet Halifax Marriott Harbourfront Hotel Friday January 24, 2025 RSVP Theresa Whalen, Nuffield Canada Executive Director Email at exec.director@nuffield.ca Nuffield Canada Scholar Presentations Presenting Scholars Send two representatives to join us for You’re Cordially Invited BANQUET TICKETS $150 each E-transfer to secretary@nuffield.ca Include name and email in comments section Are you ready to ignite global explorations, discovery and innovation in Canadian agriculture? Then apply to Nuffield Canada between April 1 to June 30, and get ready to change your life! Andrew Rosychuk Edmonton, AB | 2020 Scholar Sponsored by: Nuffield Canada Topic: On-Farm Medium Scale Processing Craig Lester Calgary, AB | 2023 Scholar Sponsored by: Alberta Grains (formerly AB Wheat Commission) Topic: Media’s Role In Agriculture And The Influence It Has On Consumers’ Perspective Of The Industry Emily Ford Medicine Hat, AB | 2023 Scholar Sponsored by: McCain Foods Topic: Regenerative Agriculture in Potato Production Systems Justin Cantafio Dartmouth, NS | 2023 Scholar Sponsored by: NS Gov., Dept. of Agriculture Topic: Taking A Global Lens In Exploring The Power Of The World’s Public Markets To Build Sustainable, Resilient, And Adaptable Local Food Systems In Canada Kirk Zembal Edmonton, AB | 2023 Scholar Sponsored by: Canadian Canola Growers Association Topic: Creating Value For Grain Growers In The Rapidly Changing Sustainability And Carbon Pricing Landscape Stephanie Lam Guelph, ON | 2023 Scholar Sponsored by: Semex Topic: Genetic And Genomic Approaches For Sustainable Beef Production 1:00-4:30 PM Scholar Presentations 5:30 PM Reception 6:30 PM Banquet Halifax Marriott Harbourfront Hotel Friday January 24, 2025 RSVP Theresa Whalen, Nuffield Canada Executive Director Email at exec.director@nuffield.ca By January 10, 2025 Nuffield Canada Scholar Presentations Presenting Scholars Send two representatives to join us for You’re Cordially Invited BANQUET TICKETS $150 each E-transfer to secretary@nuffield.ca Include name and email in comments section Craig Lester Calgary, AB | 2023 Scholar Sponsored by: Alberta Grains (formerly AB Wheat Commission) For more information about the presenting scholars visit www.nuffield.ca. Emily Ford Medicine Hat, AB | 2023 Scholar Sponsored by: McCain Foods Justin Cantafio Darmouth, NS | 2023 Scholar Sponsored by: NS Gov., Dept. of Agriculture Kirk Zembal Edmonton, AB | 2023 Scholar Sponsored by: Canadian Canola Growers Association Stephanie Lam Guelph, ON | 2023 Scholar Sponsored by: Semex Can’t make it? We’ll have the reports published on www.nuffield.ca by early February along with a video of each scholar’s presentation. Please RSVP your attendance at exec.director@nuffield.ca by Jan. 10, 2025. continued on page 14
14 Industry news nutrition programs – the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program and the Emergency Food Assistance Program. Several disaster programs are also permanently authorized. That said, these programs will not have the potential improvements and updates that would accompany a new Farm Bill. But the Bureau notes that farm safety net programs will revert back to outdated policies that threaten to disrupt markets. It called on lawmakers to provide funds to bridge the gap, which at press time, were still under consideration. But at a White House news conference in early October, seasoned Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said he still wasn’t giving up. “The reality is this has got to be done before the end of the year,” he said, adding, “there’s better odds than not that we get it done.” Vilsack noted that the Republican and Democratic leaders of their respective agriculture committees, perhaps spurred on by the prospects of a total failure, were once again engaged in discussions. He called that “a good sign.” TURNING POINT Some, though, view the bill upheaval as a veiled blessing, one that could mark a turning point in agricultural policy. They claim the Farm Bill has been dying for years anyway, and that the U.S. needs a modernized Farm Bill that recognizes realities that didn’t exist in the 1930s when the original bill was drafted, or even six years ago when the last bill was written. Among the proponents for change is AFB President Vincent “Zippy” Duvall. In July, with deadlines nearing, Duvall called for not only reauthorizing the bill, but for a whole makeover. “When the current Farm Bill was drafted in 2018, the agricultural landscape was drastically different,” he said. “Policy that pre-dates a global pandemic, historic inflation, skyrocketing supply costs and geopolitical uncertainty just won’t cut it today or next year.” Added chief economist Cryan: “The 2018 Farm Bill was a good law for its time, but that time is past. And that farmers are calling for a new farm bill, and not an extension, is telling. Farmers face many difficulties this year and next, from crashing crop prices to backed up transportation systems to [the] devastating hurricane. All of these demonstrate how much farmers can suffer from a lack of the certainty and support that a new Farm Bill can provide.” One change called for by the National Sustainable Agriculture Coalition, an alliance of grassroots organizations that advocates for federal policy reform, was better support for local and regional food grant programs. It noted that in 2022, more than 60,000 farms sold their products to retail markets, institutions, and food hubs marketed as local and regional products, with sales valuing $14.2 billion. That’s an increase of nearly 60 per cent since the last Farm Bill. The coalition says the growth can partially be attributed to the increased reliance on local and regional food systems that followed fractured national supply chains during the Covid-19 pandemic. So where to now? Illinois Rep. Nikki Budzinski, a Democrat and member of the House Committee on Agriculture, says the Farm Bill must prioritize support for the next generation of farmers, provide resources for rural development and invest in agricultural research. She says it should also enhance conservation programs, protect crop insurance, promote biofuels and improve food access – admirable goals for a new U.S. government now grappling with a slate of priorities into which agriculture must somehow fit. Owen Roberts is a Canadian journalist who currently lives and works in the U.S. as a faculty member at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign.• continued from page 15 “‘The Farm Bill put US$428 billion into farming, nutrition programs, and food aid from 2017-2022.’
N Treatment N Rate (lb-N/ac) Yield (bu/ac) Lower N Rate 126 212 Normal N Rate 158 227 Higher N Rate 189 229 It’s the end of another season. The idea of “report cards” may not exactly evoke excitement, but think about a nitrogen (N) rate report card as a good one – one that might deliver confidence around nitrogen rate decisions on your farm. There are lots of good tools used to guide nitrogen rate decisions (nitrogen credits, pre-sidedress-nitrate tests, rainfall, soil types, etc.), but at the end of the day, the only way to truly get a handle on optimum nitrogen rates on your own farm is to collect yields from some different nitrogen rates. This can be very simple. One of the easiest ways might be the “30-pound” test, that is, three side-by-side applicator-width strips of the following (Figure. 1): i) 30 lb-N/ac lower than normal N rate ii) your normal N rate iii) 30 lb-N/ac higher than normal N rate 15 ONTARIO GRAIN FARMER DECEMBER 2024/JANUARY 2025 Your nitrogen rate report card CROP SIDE WITH... Ben Rosser Crop side Ben Rosser, Ontario Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Agribusiness Corn Specialist Figure 1. Example layout of N rate strips in a field. Apply these rates in whatever way works best. Ideally, replicate these plots at least twice. Remember where they are and collect yields from each one at harvest. As yields have trended up over time, one grower in Elgin County wanted to know if he should be applying more N than his traditional rate of 158 lb-N/ac. In 2023, he applied treatments very similar to the 30-lb test (Table 1). Results showed that his normal nitrogen rate appeared sufficient even in a very high yielding and wet year like 2023. Relative to his normal nitrogen rate: Table 1. “Nitrogen rate report card” from three nitrogen rates tested by grower in Elgin County in 2023. i) Lowering nitrogen rates (-32 lb-N/ac) resulted in yield losses (-15 bu/ac) that were much more costly than the N saved ii) Increasing nitrogen rates (+32 lb-N/ac) resulted in little extra yield (+2 bu/ac) and certainly not enough to pay for the extra nitrogen applied These results gave the grower good confidence that his normal nitrogen rates were enough to meet the needs of the area tested, even in a very high-yielding and high rainfall year (Figure 2). We know optimum nitrogen rates vary year to year, even within a relatively small area of a field. It would be good to repeat these strips over time (and maybe space) to compare nitrogen across various environments. • Figure 2. Nitrogen rate strips in a field in Elgin County in the high rainfall year of 2023. 30 lb-N/ac Lower than Normal Normal N Rate 30 lb-N/ac Higher than Normal
16 Agronomy Field observations year in review GRAIN FARMERS OF ONTARIO’S AGRONOMIST LOOKS BACK Laura Austin Ferrier AS ANOTHER YEAR COMES TO A CLOSE, IT IS BENEFICIAL TO LOOK BACK and see how the year progressed and what trials and triumphs there were across the province. The number of pictures I currently have on my phone of flooded fields from this year is astounding, but I’m sure that many readers of this article have more, and on the flip side, there are many pictures of spectacularlooking crops. CHALLENGES Planting for many was indeed a trial as the theme of this spring was rain. Many received record rainfall over a short number of days or weeks, creating saturated ground that was hard to dry up. This led to later than normal planting of corn and soybeans in some regions, with changes of corn hybrids from a full season to a shorter season or even to soybeans as the spring season passed. Planting stretched well into June for many and into July for some, with some acres not getting seeded. Timely spraying was a test for sprayer operators this spring, as heavy and consistent rains paired with high winds on rain-free days created a bottleneck of acres that had to be navigated, leading to some advancedstage weeds before the sprayer could arrive. However, with larger spray equipment available when there were good spray days, many acres could be covered quickly. With heavy rains, fields were stressed from saturated soils. Some soybean fields saw yellow plants due to denitrification from prolonged ponding. As nitrogen fixation began, saturated soils impacted the fixation due to the process and associated bacteria, needing gas exchange for the activity. Disease appeared as the environment was often conducive to its development. Root rots, stripe rust, tar spot (which spread further across the province than in past years), and Gibberella ear rot, to name a few. And in any year, insects arrive; this year, aphids, two-spotted spider mites, corn rootworm, and western bean cutworm, to name a few. SUCCESSES Winter wheat was somewhat of an unknown as spring approached, with many acres being planted later than optimum in the fall of 2023. The question was if the field should be terminated or not come spring. However, as fields greened up with great conditions for growing wheat (and everyone’s lawns), wheat rapidly advanced, and fields that looked poor in the fall and early spring really came along and shocked some with bin-busting yields. Even with spring planting challenges, it was great to see farmers and others in the industry support each other through challenging moments. When planting plans changed or replants made due to crusting from heavy rains or flooded fields after planting, the seed was made available, and planting was able to be completed. Once crops were in the ground, crop stages advanced quickly. Most regions saw aboveaverage crop heat unit accumulation and moisture availability, allowing for crops to thrive (if they weren’t underwater). Throughout the growing season, there was still a high degree of crop stage variation from field to field and even within the field, but heat and moisture allowed crops to reach maturity, in most cases, from what might have been late starts to the growing season. The grain fill period for many regions was close to ideal for each of the five crops Grain Farmers of Ontario covers, leading to high yield estimates and average yields, with good quality in many cases. Early fall saw great weather conditions, allowing winter wheat to be planted, and with warm temperatures, wheat emergence and development have been rapid. Good weather also allowed for fall weed control to be applied on winter wheat acres to manage winter annuals. TAR SPOT EARLY-SEASON FLOODED FIELD
17 ONTARIO GRAIN FARMER DECEMBER 2024/JANUARY 2025 PLANT ANYWHERE. THRIVE EVERYWHERE. Contact your local dealer today! As of mid-October, there had yet to be a hard-killing frost across most of the province, allowing some of the later planted fields to reach maturity. Corn harvest had just begun with moistures in the low 20s in some cases, with field conditions so far remaining functional and not saturated. LOOKING FORWARD To plan for future seasons, it’s important to learn from the challenges that occurred this year and keep records of what worked and what didn’t in each situation. Despite improvements in crop management, it is still crucial to remember to rotate crops to help break up disease and insect cycles while having the ability to rotate herbicides to manage hard-to-control weeds. Aim to apply pesticides, herbicides, and fungicides at ideal timing, when warranted, and follow any associated best management practices. Also, for plant varieties and hybrids that are less susceptible to yield-robbing pathogens and insects, GoCrops.ca is a great resource for third-party variety and hybrid performance trial data. And above all, remember to take some time to focus on mental health. It has been a challenging year for many, for one reason or another. Be sure to take some time over the winter to rest and prepare for the 2025 season. We are so fortunate to live and farm where we do, and every year will present its unique challenges but also the ability to succeed in many ways. Always look for the silver lining and what can be done differently or better in future years. Laura Austin Ferrier, CCA-ON, is Grain Farmers of Ontario’s agronomist. During the spring, summer, and fall growing seasons, she writes a weekly Field Observations report available in the weekly GrainTALK e-newsletter and on the Ontario Grain Farmer website, www.ontariograinfarmer.ca. • Planting for many was indeed a trial as the theme of this spring was rain. Many received record rainfall over a short number of days or weeks. PHOTOS COURTESY OF LAURA FERRIER.
YOUR GRAIN FARMERS OF ONTARIO TEAM Here is our next installment of profiles of your Grain Farmers of Ontario staff to help introduce you to the team. 18 An update on Grain Farmers of Ontario news and events EUROPEAN AND U.K. TRADE MISSION In October, Jeff Harrison, chair and director of District 12 (Durham, Northumberland, Kawartha, Peterborough, Hastings), Crosby Devitt, CEO, and Dana Dickerson, manager of market development and sustainability, took part in a trade mission led by Ontario Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Agribusiness minister, the Honourable Rob Flack. The U.K. and EU countries represent some of the largest export markets for Ontario corn and soybeans, and they are emerging markets for Ontario wheat due to recent import tariff reductions. Grain Farmers of Ontario promoted the quality, reliability, and sustainability of Ontario grains and engaged with key customers and policymakers on market access issues. NICOLE KOOPSTRA CREATIVE SPECIALIST Nicole (Ford) Koopstra joined Grain Farmers of Ontario in May as the creative specialist. Over the past six months, she has played a vital role in supporting the communications team on several projects for farmer-members, including the Ontario Grain Farmer magazine, digital and print resources for events, and the Good in Every Grain STEMterprise education program. Koopstra graduated from Humber College in June 2018 with a diploma in the Advanced Graphic Design Program, where she honed her skills in print, digital, and web design. Her passion for agriculture was ignited during summers spent working at a garden centre in her hometown of Milton, Ontario, where she nurtured plants, herbs, and vegetables. After relocating to Mississauga, Koopstra began her career as an art director at BASF, where she tackled important issues faced by farmers across Canada, creating innovative solutions to support their needs. Koopstra is excited to bring her creative vision to Grain Farmers of Ontario to enhance communications and foster connections within the farming community. With her blend of artistic talent and agricultural knowledge, she is dedicated to making a positive impact on the lives of members and advancing the interests of the grain farming industry.
19 ONTARIO GRAIN FARMER DECEMBER 2024/JANUARY 2025 2025 ANNUAL DISTRICT MEETINGS The date and time of your district meeting has been confirmed and is listed below. Please go to www.gfo.ca for additional meeting details as they become available. Information is subject to change. Please note that there will be no remote (Zoom) option for this year’s meetings. NOTICE OF 2025 ANNUAL DISTRICT MEETINGS DISTRICT DATE TIME LOCATION/DISTRICT DIRECTOR District 1 Essex Jan 16 9 a.m. St. John’s Parish Hall, County Road 46, Woodslee, Ont. District 2 Kent Jan 15 3 p.m. Hidden Hills Golf and Country Club, 25393 St. Clair Road, Dover Centre, Ont. District 3 Lambton Jan 13 4 p.m. Wyoming Fair Grounds, 595 Main Street, Wyoming, Ont. District 4 Middlesex Jan 16 9 a.m. Lucan Community Centre, 263 Main St, Lucan, Ont. *new location District 5 Elgin, Norfolk Jan 7 9 a.m. Malahide Community Place, 12105 Whittaker Road, Springfield, Ont. District 6 Haldimand, Brant, Hamilton, Niagara Jan 13 9 a.m. Mutual Room, Riverside Exhibition Centre (Caledonia Fairgrounds), 151 Caithness Street E, Caledonia, Ont. District 7 Oxford, Waterloo Jan 17 9 a.m. Innerkip Community Centre, 695566 17th Line, Innerkip, Ont. District 8 Huron Jan 14 9 a.m. Holmesville Community Centre, 180 Community Centre Road, Clinton, Ont. District 9 Perth Jan 15 5:30 p.m. Mitchell Golf and Country Club, 81 Frances Street, Mitchell, Ont. District 10 Grey, Bruce, Wellington Jan 17 9:30 a.m. Clifford Community Hall, 2 William St., Clifford, Ont. District 11 Dufferin, Simcoe, Halton, Peel, York Jan 8 10 a.m. Faith Community Presbyterian Church, 206 Murphy Rd., Baxter Ont. *updated date District 12 Durham, Northumberland, Kawartha, Peterborough, Hastings Jan 9 9:30 a.m. The Best Western Plus, 930 Burnham Street, Cobourg, Ont. District 13 Prince Edward, Lennox, Addington, Frontenac, Lanark, Leeds, Grenville, Renfrew, Ottawa Jan 8 10 a.m. Elgin Lions Club, 19 Pineview Drive, Elgin, Ont. District 14 Prescott, Russell, Stormont, Dundas, Glengarry Jan 7 9 a.m. North Stormont Place, 16299 Fairview Drive, Avonmore, Ont. District 15 Northern Ontario Jan 9 9 a.m. Dymond Hall, 181 Drive-In Theatre Rd, Temiskaming, Ont. * new location for 2025 All current Grain Farmers of Ontario farmer-members that attend their January District Meeting inperson will receive a chance to win one of three vacation prizes! Grand Prize: $2,500 CAA Travel Gift Card, plus one-year Premier CAA membership. Two Runner-up prizes: An every-day travel package which includes a Grain Farmers of Ontario backpack, a Yeti Rambler, a one-year CAA premier membership, and a $50 gas card. Three qualifiers from each District will be selected by random draw during the January District Meeting (must be present at end of meeting to win) and entered into the Grand Prize and Runner up draws. District qualifiers will receive a Grain Farmers of Ontario prize pack.
RkJQdWJsaXNoZXIy MTQzODE4