ONTARIO GRAIN FARMER INDUSTRY NEWS 14 "There's less research done on seed, but you can imagine that when you start messing with the chemistry of the crop and the chemical content of the kernel, you run the risk of changing the value of the seed," said Mussell. "There's some thought that if seed quality declines, seed vitality will decline." That could affect germination, although his research of the literature on that part of the discussion was not definitive. The second concern with warming in a northern climate like Canada is the migration of pests from southern regions, and that is becoming more apparent. In a NASA study, it was theorized that higher yields in wheat will carry lower nutritional content. Corn yields are predicted to drop measurably, and Mussell suggested that forecast is driven by the depletion of irrigation-fed corn production in the U.S. Midwest and changes in rainfall patterns. "Where does that leave us?" posed Mussell. "Well, we're warmer and wet to varying degrees and in a northern climate, this is beneficial. An agronomist recently told me with soybean yields in Ontario, the basic limitation is warmth." That may result in moving certain crops into Northeastern Ontario. The Timiskaming Nipissing Districts are growing soybeans and cereals, and some producers have managed to grow corn. Farther north in the Northern Clay Belt—from Kapuskasing to Cochrane—they may be able to grow soybeans or corn, although it may take decades. SHORT-TERM Global food scarcity continues to be the more immediate challenge, said Mussell, and consumption of wheat, barley, oats, and corn is increasing while global ending stocks are decreasing by one per cent per year. "If we get into mitigation that impairs our efficiencies, it may not be a good idea," he added. "There is real scarcity in the world, and we're really just feeding ourselves by taking down these stocks because production isn't keeping up with consumption." Yet Canada is a big player in this staple food picture. As exporters, we're first in canola, third in soybeans (not meal or oil), fourth in pork and seventh in beef. Globally, food may be scarce, but Canada is a top producer. "How much are we really going to mitigate, and how should we compare that against our contribution to trade in agri-food?" said Mussell. He noted Canada represents 1.4 per cent of global greenhouse emissions yet accounts for 5.5 per cent of agri-food imports and exports. "How far could you sensibly go to chip away at the five per cent when you're only 1.4 per cent?" Reducing gas emissions is a good idea, concluded Mussell, but at what cost? When measuring the effects on Canadian agriculture, the discussion surrounding climate needs to change. • “A concern with warming in a northern climate like Canada is the migration of pests from southern regions, and that is becoming more apparent. continued from page 13
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