continued on page 8 History is a wonderful teacher, and with the approach of a new year, it’s time to pause and reflect on 2025 before envisioning how 2026 might unfold. At this point last year, most farmers in Ontario were still feeling the effects of domestic trade issues, including labour disputes affecting rail transportation and port shipments, as well as a wetter-than-normal growing season for most of southern Ontario. In the past 12 months, the overall focus has shifted to one more dominated by U.S. and global market concerns. It’s hard to ignore the effects of trade and tariffs, especially living next door to the U.S. and hearing or reading about its “challenges”, and trying to determine how Ontario growers may be affected. We’ve seen significant changes in U.S. trade policies, with some profound effects on U.S. marketing and responses from Washington. On a local level, 2025 saw some of the worst growing conditions in more than 20 years, with excessive and prolonged dry weather across different parts of the province. But for the growers I deal with, it’s important to note that we’re not well-positioned to simply assume trade relations that the U.S. holds or has held with other countries. We have a unique scenario in that our exports are shipped through the St. Lawrence Seaway, and we’re not able to load vessels in Ontario for ocean-going transport without being topped off in Montreal. It’s not a criticism of that particular system; it works very well to meet our trade needs, with the commodities we grow here. But the most prominent conversation I’ve had in the past five months drives this notion that if China isn’t buying commodities from the U.S., they’ll want to buy from Canada. If we were in B.C. and had access to the Port of Vancouver, that’d be a huge advantage for soybean growers exporting their harvests to Asia. The truth is, Ontario is the farthest away from China from a shipping standpoint. We may still have a strategic advantage for some products but from a logistical perspective, we’re not set up for that in Ontario, at least not for something like soybeans. MORE HISTORICAL REMINDERS Politics is playing a greater role in the movement of commodities, affecting the closely guarded supply-and-demand economics standards involved in the movement of grains and oilseeds. In March 2022, the Canadian Agri-Food Policy Institute (CAPI) issued a report titled “Agri-Food Productivity and Trade: Policy Gaps and Possibilities”, coinciding with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. One recommendation made by the study’s authors was “The distortions in agri-food trade are increasingly being used as a geo-economic weapon in which open-economy exporters like Canada are vulnerable.” In retrospect, when that conflict began, Russia was politically cut off from most countries, and we’ve seen a similar reaction to the U.S. in 2025, even if it’s for different reasons. In spite of political pressures, countries may discount the price of commodities and when that happens, buyers will make their decisions based on those prices. In the case of Russia, several ONTARIO GRAIN FARMER COVER STORY 7 buyers voted to pay cheaper grain prices, especially if supplies from their usual chain partners were reduced by a poor growing season. Politically, they might have wanted to avoid dealing with an “undesirable” source, but most times when something is cheaper, a buyer will act accordingly. LOOKING AHEAD If we come around full circle for 2026, the question will be whether the U.S. will have to significantly discount its grain to attract buyers on the world market. We’re seeing this late in 2025, as American suppliers are offering soybeans to China at a discount, yet China is sending a clear signal by paying a premium to purchase soybeans from South America. Interestingly, after its conflict with Ukraine began in 2022, Russia ended up selling its wheat for about $100 (U.S.) per tonne on the world market just to get rid of it. Instead of the supply in the market becoming tighter and more expensive, prices dropped as both countries involved in the conflict continued producing vast quantities of grain. Despite the challenges of growing and shipping grain out of the region with a war raging around them, the two regions continued with relatively robust production levels and the expected price hikes never developed. In late 2025, some are hoping a similar tightening in the marketplace will push soybean prices higher because the U.S. isn’t selling to certain countries, despite the lessons of the RussiaUkraine conflict. And that’s what I’m worried about—that it looks as though the U.S., our neighbour, is going to have a massive surplus of grain, which can go both ways for Canada and Ontario, in particular. We could have other countries buying from us, paying a premium like South America. Or we could see the U.S. The 2024 growing season featured a wetter-than-normal spring, while 2025 saw excessive and prolonged dry weather.
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