ONTARIO GRAIN FARMER 6 COVER STORY Kristy Nudds Across Canada, Across Borders: What Ontario grain farmers can learn from the Canada-U.S. trade reset The real storms shaping Canadian agriculture are increasingly political, not just meteorological. From near-constant tariff threats and trade reviews to regulatory crackdowns in Brussels and disputes in Beijing and New Delhi, decisions made in Ottawa, Washington, Mexico City, Geneva, and Brussels are shaping prices, market access, and investment on farms across Canada. Two panel discussions on Canada-U.S. trade and international agricultural trade at the Canadian Crops Convention in Toronto in March delivered a consistent message: Canada cannot wish away its dependence on the United States, but it also cannot rely too heavily on any single customer, whether the U.S., China, or anyone else. How Canada handles trade rules, diplomacy, and market access in the next few years will matter directly to farms across the country. Looking in the rearview mirror, Canada appears to have weathered recent trade turbulence better than many countries. Candice Laing, president and CEO of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, noted that despite growing instability, “Canada’s doing relatively better than other countries… we’re not in catastrophic circumstances.” But she warned the mood among businesses tells a much different story. “Everybody I talk to says, ‘No, we’re not Trade policy is reshaping the outlook for farmers as political decisions abroad increasingly influence prices, market access, and investment confidence at home. “Telling Canadian agriculture it needs to diversify further is like telling a cayenne pepper it needs to be spicy.” okay… there’s a lot of unrest… we can’t see two weeks out, basically… and that leaves us in a very uncomfortable position.’” That discomfort is especially pronounced in agriculture, where long-term investments are constantly being made against increasingly short-term political certainty. DISTORTED AGRICULTURE TRADE At the global level, World Trade Organization Agriculture Director Edwini Kessie told delegates the rules-based trade system that helped fuel decades of agricultural growth is under serious strain. While about 72 per cent of world trade still occurs under WTO most-favoured-nation terms, he warned that the foundational principles of non-discrimination and predictable market access “are under attack.” Agriculture, he argued, remains particularly distorted. Tariffs on agricultural products remain roughly double those applied to industrial goods, while countries continue to provide enormous levels of trade-distorting subsidies. “The OECD estimates that trade-distorting support countries provide [is] over $600 billion a year,” Kessie said. For farmers, that uncertainty quickly becomes practical. It shows up in whiplash moves in futures and basis when trade headlines break,
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