ONTARIO GRAIN FARMER 9 COVER STORY 1Source: Grower trials conducted across Ontario 2018-2024, n=125 Always read and follow label directions. Miravis® Neo refers to Miravis® Neo 300 SE Fungicide. Miravis® and the Syngenta logo are trademarks of a Syngenta Group Company. © 2026 Syngenta. Trusted. Proven. Consistent. Miravis® Neo fungicide. For application information and more visit Syngenta.ca/MiravisNeo corn acres treated since 2019 yield increase based on 125 farmer trials1 wet and dry years, lower and upper yield ranges1 15.1 bu/ac Strong ROI 2M “If all three countries do not agree… then we go into a period of 10 years of annual reviews,” Lilly explained. Dawson expects the agreement will survive, but warned stability may still erode. “I think the agreement will survive, but not in a state that we’re going to be really happy with,” she said. For farmers, the difference between long-term certainty and yearly renegotiation risk is substantial. Processors, railways, grain handlers, and exporters become more cautious about major investments when the trade framework underpinning continental supply chains feels unstable. That uncertainty eventually filters back into basis levels, competition for grain and investment confidence on farms themselves. Lilly also warned the United States increasingly expects allies to “pay for access” through side deals involving tariffs, defence commitments or industrial concessions. Even when agriculture is not directly targeted, it can quickly become collateral damage in disputes originating elsewhere. Complicating matters further are major differences in negotiation style between Canada and the United States. “Canadian negotiators take the view nothing is finished until everything is finished,” Lilly said. “That is really oil and water to the Trump administration.” She described American negotiations as more transactional and informal, creating risks if Canada moves too slowly while other countries strike faster arrangements. Globally, the weakening of the WTO dispute-settlement system adds another layer of uncertainty. Kessie warned that the organization’s once-celebrated enforcement system has become partially paralyzed. Yet he argued strongly that Canada should resist abandoning the multilateral framework. “It’s so easy… to think that free trade agreements may be a perfect substitute for the rules-based system,” he said. “But I don’t think [they] can be a perfect substitute.” For agriculture, the WTO remains the only venue capable of addressing truly global issues such as subsidies, export restrictions and broader trade distortions. Ultimately, all of these conversations point toward the same reality: trade policy is no longer something distant from the farm. It has become part of the production environment itself, alongside rainfall, soil conditions and commodity prices. •
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